How much wheat does Argentina export

Argentina: Wheat harvest a third smaller

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From the economy on Monday, 05.11.2012 - 14:20 (comment now)

The Argentine wheat harvest could be around 30 percent less than last year. However, this is less due to the persistent rainfall than to the decline in the area under cultivation.

According to current estimates, the Argentine wheat harvest, which begins in December, could not fail by up to a third compared to last year. A year ago, the Argentinian farmers harvested around 15.5 million wheat from almost 5.2 million hectares (million hectares), of which almost 12 million were exported. However, this year many Argentine farmers have grown barley instead of wheat, because the barley market, unlike the wheat market in Argentina, is almost unregulated. Wheat cultivation therefore shrank from 5.2 million hectares by around 30 percent to 3.6 to 3.8 million hectares.

Smaller production and fewer exports

Against the background of the smaller cultivation area, the grain exchange in Buenos Aires has lowered its production estimate to 10.1 million t and the USDA office in Argentina estimated the harvest to be 10.7 million t at the beginning of November. This means that production is more than 5 million t or a third lower than in the previous year. In its October forecast, the USDA expected a wheat harvest of 11.5 million t and an export volume of 7.3 million t.
At the beginning of November, the USDA office in Buenos Aires expects an updated market assessment of only 6.6 million tonnes (July to June). The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture has initially set the export quota for the new Argentine marketing year 2012/13 starting in December at 6 million t. However, no fewer observers still consider this amount to be too high.

Difficult harvest and disease pressure

One reason for the further downward revision of the harvest and export estimates is the extreme rainfall in Argentina. The rain initially noticeably improved the growing conditions in the main growing province of Buenos Aires. After all, according to the surveys of the grain exchange in Buenos Aires in September, 82 percent of the wheat was still in good condition.
On the other hand, the increasing flooding is likely to hinder the upcoming harvest work and at the same time the high humidity leads to massive disease pressure and reduced yields. In addition, there is apparently the fact that the stocks are considerably smaller compared to the previous year. After wheat stocks of around 4 million t at the end of last year, the available stocks should melt down to just under 0.5 million t by the end of the marketing year.

Export prices rose sharply

Last year (most recently in October) Argentine exporters shipped wheat to Egypt and North Africa. However, the most important customer is Brazil. The big South American neighbor takes about half of all exports. The main harvest in Argentina begins in December and ends in January. Wheat prices have recently risen sharply in Argentina. The old crop currently costs around 330 US dollars yes ton (USD / t).
The new harvest will be offered to fob export ports for delivery in January 2013 for just under 340 USD / t and for March the Argentine wheat will already cost 350 USD / t. US wheat (based on CBOT) is currently being traded on the Gulf of Mexico for the period November / December for 345 USD / t. French wheat cost 353 USD / t at the last export auction and German bread wheat was loaded at fob-Ostseehafen for 367 USD / t (282 euros) at the beginning of November.
  • USA: winter wheat in critical condition (November 2nd)
  • Argentina: Heavy rain delays sowing (October 29)
  • IGC / Wheat: Wheat is getting scarce (October 26)
Further information, analyzes and prices on the grain market can be found in the new dlv offer Marktkompass in the market fruits section.